Bounding Counterfactual Queries in Causal Reasoning

Abstract:
We assume to be given structural equations over discrete variables inducing a directed acyclic graph, namely, a structural causal model, together with data about its internal nodes. The first question we want to answer is how we can compute bounds for partially identifiable counterfactual queries from such input. We start by giving a map from structural causal models to credal networks. This allows us to compute exact counterfactual bounds via algorithms for credal nets on a subclass of structural causal models. We target approximate bounds via a causal EM scheme. We also point out what is a neglected limitation to the trending idea that counterfactual bounds can be computed without knowledge of the structural equations. We show how our approach can address the general case of multiple datasets, no matter whether interventional or observational, biased or unbiased, by remapping it into the former one via graphical transformations. We also present an actual case study on palliative care to show how our algorithms can readily be used for practical purposes.

Brief bio:
My research is mostly focused in the area of probabilistic (and imprecise-probabilistic) graphical models and their applications to approximate reasoning and machine learning. This involves many different sub-areas such as causality, tractable models mixing logics and probabilities, mostly involving the application of machine and reinforcement learning algorithms, but also applications to natural language processing and recommender systems. Prof. Dr. Antonucci is Senior Lecturer-Researcher at Swiss AI Lab. IDSIA (DTI – SUPSI / USI – University of Lugano), Imprecise Probability Group Member, he is the author of more than 100 peer-reviewed publications, and Elsevier IJAR Area Editor (IJAR – International Journal of Approximate Reasoninng).
WebSite: https://www.alessandroantonucci.me/

Mais informações:
site do evento: https://c4ai.inova.usp.br/c4ai-seminar-perspectives-in-ai-prof-dr-alessandro-antonucci-july-26th-2023-16h-brazil-time/